Working together, the EU and Gulf countries could just help to end the Iran war
As the war in the Middle East rumbles on, if the EU speaks with one voice and joins forces with the Gulf countries, it might just be able to make a positive difference.
Ten days after the strikes on Iran began, there’s little sign yet that the Iranian regime is about to fall or that an end to hostilities is anywhere in sight. The depth of Tehran’s resistance is shown by the appointment of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son as the new Supreme Leader, a known hardliner and someone who’s surely unacceptable to Israel and the US. Iran is also continuing its attacks on US allies in the Gulf region, as well as Israel.
But was regime change really a clear objective in the first place?
For Israel, probably yes.
For the US, we don’t know, as American officials from Donald Trump down have see-sawed between regime change, destroying Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes (even though Trump previously bragged that the June 2025 strikes had ‘obliterated’ the nuclear programme), protecting its allies and supporting opposition forces in Iran.
And do the instigators have a plan for the ‘day after’? Again, for Israel, probably yes. Their main interest seems to be the creation of chaos that will paralyse the country for the foreseeable future. But in America’s case, no clear plan has emerged. The lessons of the disastrous invasion of Iraq over 20 years ago, something that an earlier version of Donald Trump had fiercely criticised, seem to have been forgotten.
Despite the apparent confusion in Washington, Trump has railed against European nations who by and large have refused to get involved – at least in offensive actions – in this war. Their reasons why they’ve chosen to not get involved are sound.
The US/Israeli aggression is a clear violation of the UN Charter’s articles 1 and 2 (and thus break international law), there’s no UN Security Council resolution to endorse it and the strikes have completely scuppered diplomatic efforts, where on the day of the first strikes, the Omani facilitators had reported progress.
Moreover, the war has destabilised the oil and gas markets, where European economies are vulnerable, and has placed major new demands on the supply of US weaponry – especially air defence equipment – to the Middle East. This may well lead to delays in the EU being able to procure this materiel, which is often only available from US sources, to assist Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invader. Oh, and we can’t forget, the surge in the price of oil has been a gift to Vladimir Putin.
So, what should Europe do? What can Europe hope to achieve?
One thing is to try to avoid speaking with forked tongues and work assiduously for a common position. Some, notably Commission President Von der Leyen – to the chagrin of several Member States – waded in last week, seemingly supporting regime change.
In doing that, the EU should forcefully reach out to Gulf Cooperation Council countries – especially Saudi Arabia. Both sides have a common interest in bringing this war to an early end and have shown a strong interest in seriously upgrading their relations: witness the launch of serious FTA talks last year by the EU with the UAE.
The two sides should urgently work together on convincing the Trump administration to ignore Israeli demands for more escalation and to return to the negotiating table. Both have cards to play, not least EU and GCC promises made last year to make major new investments in the US economy.
With the war proving singularly unpopular at home in the US, they might be pushing on an open door. They need to be brave enough to step through.
James Moran, Associate Senior Research Fellow